The Logical Foundation’s Maximum Impact Program

The Logical Foundation will begin our Maximum Impact Program in July 2024, providing unconditional basic income to homeless veterans, families, and individuals experiencing homelessness in Maricopa County Arizona.

Our primary goal is to help participants regain stable housing, as Arizona’s scorching summers make stable housing a matter of life and death. Executing this program will also demonstrate that The Logical Foundation is capable of operating rigorous basic income programs. Our program will help six people over six months at a cost equivalent to what legacy programs often spend helping one person in a single month. If successful, this program could be the most cost-effective anti-poverty program in America.

Program Details

Group A: Two participants will receive 6 payments of $100 per month for 6 months.

Group B: Two participants will receive 6 payments of $200 per month for 6 months.

Group C: Two participants will receive 6 payments of $300 per month for 6 months.

Participants will be selected via randomization in partnership with local service providers.

Program Philosophy and Expected Impact

While the transfer amounts in our program are modest, data from our partners across America indicates that a stable foundation of basic income, even if small, may empower people experiencing homelessness to regain stability. Unfortunately, because of our small sample size, program outcomes will be susceptible to random events. Nevertheless, this program structure will enable us to collect useful, although not statistically significant, qualitative and quantitative data that will inform future programs and policy decisions.

When the Denver Basic Income Project began providing Unconditional Basic Income to people experiencing homelessness, they chose to structure their transfers as follows:

  • Group A participants received 12 monthly cash payments of $1,000 for a total of $12,000 over 12 months.
  • Group B participants received an initial direct cash payment of $6,500 and will receive 11 monthly payments of $500 for a total of $12,000 over 12 months.
  • Group C participants received 12 monthly cash payments of $50 for a total of $600 over 12 months.

Group C was intended to be a control group from which to compare the impact of the first two groups, but something strange happened. Out of the 73 participants in the DBIP’s Group C who were sleeping outside or in homeless shelters at the beginning of the program (a narrow definition of homelessness), fewer than 26 remained in those conditions after only 6 months. A 64% reduction in sheltered & unsheltered homelessness.

At the same time, Miracle Messages released its interim report of six-month findings. They opted to use a waitlist to capture outcome data for their control group of people experiencing unsheltered and sheltered homelessness. Out of the 27 people in their control group who reported spending time unsheltered in the past month, 23 remained in the same situation 6 months later. A mere 15% reduction.

Our program will have 6 participants who will receive between $100 to $300 per month for six months. We cannot be highly confident we will see broad positive results given the small sample size, but if the impacts seen by our partners hold true for our program, we will change the likelihood of each of our participants remaining homeless after 6 months from 85% to less than 36%.

Upon completion of the program, we will report our true outcome data for housing, mental health, jobs, and more.

Financial Transparency

Our launch fundraising campaign in May 2024 was a success, raising $10,369. After accounting for $1,481 in in-kind and catering sponsorship donations, we raised $8,888. Our long-held goal has been to transfer ~80% of program funds directly to people in need, and 80% of $8,888 is $7,110.

We will ultimately transfer $7,200 to participants, exceeding our 80% goal.

Basic income can end the homelessness crisis.

The federal government spends over $51 Billion a year to combat homelessness and there are 653,104 homeless Americans as of 2023. That’s $78,073 per homeless person. The result? Homelessness increased by over 12% from 2021 to 2022.

Our research partners have demonstrated that providing unconditional basic income as small as $600 to $6,000 of guaranteed income per person would enable most homeless people to regain stability within 6 months.

Building the most cost-effective life-saving program in America.

Homelessness in Arizona is not only expensive, it is extremely deadly. 1,286 people suffering from homelessness died in Maricopa County alone in 2022, and given 2022’s Point-in-Time Count of 9,026 homeless people, Maricopa County had an annual mortality rate well in excess of 10%. 

Deaths / Total Homeless Population: 1,286/9,026 = 14.2%

According to the Federal Emergency Management Agency as of 2020, the statistical value of a life is $7.5 Million. And, that’s the lowest value of any government department. Factoring out the 1% normal mortality rate, we estimate that 13.2% – 1,191 people – died preventably in Maricopa County in 2022.

Preventable Deaths * FEMA Value of a Life: 1,191 * $7.5 Million = $8.93 Billion

14.2%

Deaths / Population = Death rate
Arizona’s Homeless Death Rate
1,286/9,026 = 14.2%

Our Vision for Arizona’s Future

With $20 Million we could end the homelessness crisis in Pima County, building a model that could be easily scaled up to work in Maricopa County. With under $150 Million, the amount that Arizona’s government recently put into a housing trust fund dedicated to reducing homelessness, we could temporarily end the homelessness crisis across Arizona. Ultimately, implementing Universal Basic Income is the only way we can permanently end homelessness and build a brighter future for all.

For the foreseeable future, we will put unrestricted funds toward expanding our impact in Arizona. We will need your continued support to build the capacity needed to end homelessness at scale.

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